Bama Bowl Bingo
by tommy.deas
With the University of Alabama’s football regular season two-thirds complete and the postseason picture becoming clearer, this seems like a good time to start speculating on where the Crimson Tide will go bowling.
From now through the end of the regular season — since the word will be official about a week after the Auburn game — I’ll handicap the odds on each bowl Alabama seems to have a possibility of ending up in, and against whom, with those odds changing from week to week.
Here’s the first installment of Bama Bowl Bingo:
Sugar Bowl: 30 percent.
If UA wins out the regular season and loses to the Gators in Atlanta again, expect a return trip to New Orleans for a consolation-prize game against Cincinnati.
BCS Championship Game: 25 percent.
If Alabama wins out and defeats Florida in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game, look for the Tide to play Texas in Pasadena for all the hardware.
Cotton Bowl: 20 percent.
Alabama could end up in Dallas with a loss to LSU, or perhaps another SEC loss coupled with a loss to Florida. Likely opponent would be Oklahoma.
Capital One Bowl: 15 percent.
There’s also a good chance UA could go bowling in Orlando with a loss to LSU this weekend, or another SEC loss and a loss to Florida in the league title game. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to represent the Big Ten.
Outback Bowl: 5 percent.
Only a late-season collapse would bump the Tide all the way to Tampa, probably against Wisconsin.
Chick-fil-A Bowl: 5 percent
If UA were to take a massive stumble down the stretch, the other possible destination would be Atlanta, maybe in a rematch with Virginia Tech.
Keep checking in each week and track the odds.
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Well, obviously this should get much more clear after the LSU game. A win by the Tide in that one would pretty much eliminate the five percent bowls, and probably the 15 and 20 percent ones as well. It is hard to imagine a collapse big enough to drop Alabama out of the BCS if they get by LSU. In fact, I would argue that at that point their odds of making the BCS Championship Game are roughly equal to their odds of beating Florida.
by Rodney Stanford